Holiday ecommerce is expected to grow again this year. That sounds like good news for anyone selling online.
It is good news. It is just not the same thing as easy money.
Deloitte’s latest holiday forecast projects U.S. ecommerce sales of $316.1 billion to $318.9 billion from November 2026 through January 2027, up 7.5% to 8.4% from the same period a year earlier. Total retail sales are expected to rise 4.0% to 4.8%.
Then PwC’s Holiday Outlook gives us the other half of the picture. Its survey says eight in ten consumers plan to use a budgeting strategy, 79% say deals and discounts influence when they shop, and roughly 40% of planned gift spending is expected during Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday.
Those findings are not necessarily fighting with each other. They describe the market from different angles.
The market can grow while the individual customer becomes harder to win.
For a business owner, that distinction matters much more than whether the headline forecast has a plus sign in front of it.
A bigger market does not lift every boat
When industry forecasts predict ecommerce growth, it is tempting to turn that into a business assumption: more people will shop online, therefore our store should sell more.
There are several problems with that logic.
First, market growth is not distributed evenly. Large marketplaces, retailers with aggressive promotion calendars, strong brands and businesses with excellent fulfillment can take a disproportionate share. A rising category can still contain plenty of losing merchants.
Second, dollar growth does not tell you how easy the customer was to acquire. Revenue can rise while advertising costs, discounting, shipping subsidies and returns eat the margin underneath it.
Third, customers are actively trying to stretch their money. Deloitte expects value-seeking behavior across income levels, while PwC’s survey shows consumers planning around budgets and promotion timing.
That is not a customer who has stopped buying.
It is a customer who is making you earn the order.
The real competition is for priority
One of the easiest mistakes in holiday planning is treating demand as binary: people are either spending or they are not.
Consumers are usually choosing where to spend.
Your product is not competing only with the product beside it in a Google Shopping result. It may be competing with a restaurant reservation, a family trip, another child’s gift, a lower-priced substitute, or simply the decision to wait for a better promotion.
The business question becomes:
Why should this purchase survive the customer’s budget cuts?
“Twenty percent off” can be an answer. It is rarely the only answer.
A strong bundle, clear giftability, dependable arrival date, easier returns, useful product comparison, a meaningful guarantee, or simply explaining the value better can all change the decision without automatically giving away another five points of margin.
Promotion timing is going to matter
PwC estimates that roughly 40% of planned gift spending will happen during the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday.
That concentration creates a difficult environment for smaller businesses. The obvious response is to join the discount pileup.
Sometimes that is exactly right. But a promotion should have a job beyond “everyone else is doing one.”
Before deciding the percentage off, decide what the promotion is supposed to accomplish.
Are you trying to acquire first-time customers? Increase average order value? Move seasonal inventory? Create urgency around a bestseller? Pull demand earlier so fulfillment does not get crushed in December? Bring previous customers back?
Those are different jobs. They do not automatically deserve the same offer.
If your margins cannot survive a deep sitewide discount, pretending you are Amazon for a weekend is not a strategy. It is an expensive costume.
Delivery is part of the offer
Price gets most of the attention during peak season, but operational certainty becomes part of what customers are buying.
Once a purchase has a deadline, certainty has value. That means shipping promises, inventory accuracy, cutoff dates, return policies and customer communication belong in the marketing conversation.
A beautiful campaign that drives customers into stockouts, vague delivery estimates or post-purchase confusion can turn successful acquisition into a service problem.
For smaller merchants, reliability can even be a competitive advantage. You may not beat the largest retailer on price, but you can make the decision feel safer.
AI is becoming another value-shopping tool
PwC says 29% of consumers plan to use AI somewhere in their holiday shopping this year, up from 22% last year. Common uses include product research, price comparison and budgeting.
That matters because AI makes comparison easier.
A customer who can quickly ask for alternatives, compare specifications, identify cheaper options and pressure-test whether a product is worth the money becomes harder to win with vague marketing.
This reinforces something businesses should already be doing: make the value legible.
Product pages should explain what is different. Service pages should make the offer understandable. Pricing and policies should not require detective work. Reviews and proof should answer the obvious trust questions. Structured product information should be accurate enough that search engines, marketplaces and AI systems do not have to guess.
The technology is new. The business requirement is not.
What I would do before peak season
I would start with margin, not the promotion calendar.
Know which products can tolerate a discount, which need bundles or threshold offers instead, and which should not be advertised aggressively because the economics break after acquisition cost and fulfillment.
Then identify the products you actually want to win with. Make sure those pages answer the questions a cautious shopper will ask: why this one, why this price, why trust this business, when will it arrive, and what happens if it is wrong?
Next, design promotions around specific jobs instead of defaulting to one sitewide percentage. A bundle can increase perceived value. A free-shipping threshold can protect average order value. Early access can pull loyal customers forward. A deadline-backed delivery promise can reduce uncertainty.
Finally, test the boring operational pieces before traffic spikes: inventory, mobile checkout, tracking, email and SMS flows, support coverage, analytics and promotion logic.
Peak season has a habit of finding whatever you forgot to test.
The opportunity is real. So is the competition.
Deloitte’s forecast is a legitimate reason for optimism. Ecommerce is expected to outgrow total retail again this holiday season.
But “ecommerce will grow” is an industry forecast, not a sales plan.
The more useful signal is the combination: consumers still intend to buy, but they are budgeting, comparing, switching and waiting for value.
Businesses do not need to panic or race to the bottom on price.
They do need to make the purchase easier to justify.
That means a better offer, clearer value, smarter promotion economics and reliable execution.
The holiday market may get bigger this year. Your share of it still has to be earned.
Sources
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